Full discussion next week, intro discussion today.
Macro, emerging market play: Bill discussed some hedge fund managers see the play as toppy, but if investors look carefully there is room to play.
Wally would hold on investing in Ag commodities/copper, agrees with Michael that the EM consumer is a priority
EM Consumer ETF:
Know your trendy investor acronyms
-CIVETS: Columbia, Indonesia, Vietnam, Egypt, Turkey, South Africa
-EPU would give us exposure to copper
Financial Times series: rise of the EM Consumer
SAB Miller in South Sudan since May 2009, White Bull Beer has spent $37M on factories.
Eggs major source of protein for India and China, competing with Brazil and Argentina for the egg market. Brazil exports to Middle East.
Consumer in developing Asia and Japan reached 4.3T in 2008, 1/3 of private consumption of the developed world. By 2030 could hit 32T, 43% of world consumption.
China
-pushing back against foreigner branding, local branding gaining traction
-Lift 61% of population is middle-class from 1991 to 2008
-IMF expects 34% of population will own cars by 2050, 367M
India:
-Rapid income growth: 33 years to I crease per capita incomes from $100/monh to $500/month; it has only taken 5 years for it to double to $1,000/month
-Penetration of consumer goods is low: 12 cars per 1000 people; 18% own refrigerators; 50% own TV's. China has 128 cars per 1000 people and 80% own TV's
-Provide almost 1/3 of the incremental working population in next two decade
Brazil
- Image conscious, health conscious: personal hygiene, dieting, exercise
Russia
- internet savvy, clicking their way to bargains: groupon.com
- utkonos.ru has 90% of muscovite's food orders
Indonesia
- middle class has doubled in the last 10 years
Vietnam
- is the most eager to spend on electronics
-tied with Indonesia for consumer confidence, behind India, according to Neilso
- large trade imbalance, mostly die to consumer electronics trade with China
- GDP is expected to be 6.5% this year
