| Buy List | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Energy | |||
| Company | Rank | BT | PT |
| Apache (APA) | 1 | $106 | $138 |
| Exxon (XOM) | 3 | NAV | NAV |
| Occidental Petro (OXY) | 1 | $70 | NAV |
| Schlumberger (SLB) | 3 | NAV | NAV |
| Ultra Petroleum (UPL) | 3 | $45 | NAV |
| SeaDrill (SDRL) | 1 | $25 | $NAV |
| Alternative Energy | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Company | Rank | BT | PT |
| Enernoc (ENOC) | 3 | $25 | NAV |
| Energy Rec (ERII) | 2 | $7 | $12 |
ENOC following JPMorgan Conf:
ReplyDeleteEnerNOC Inc. – (ENOC/$30.17/Overweight)
Presenter – Tim Healy, CEO
ENOC is seeing better pricing for DR as the market matures. This is evidenced
by the strong results from the recent PJM auction where ENOC cleared
~$200mm of capacity for the 13/14 delivery year.
ENOC believes the TAM for DR is 80k MWs, or about 10% of peak electric
demand in the US. This is expected to grow to 130-150k MWs over time. The
market, including all DR activity procured by the utilities themselves, is about
35-40% penetrated. ENOC is the leader with about 15% share.
The TAM for SiteSMART is about $3.5-5 billion. ENOC has proven to save
customers 8-10% on their electric bill. ENOC's revenue is about 50% of customer
savings.
FSLR – 2Q10 earnings release
ReplyDeleteEPS $1.84 vs st. $1.62 for 2Q
Rev $587.9M vs st. $541.8M for 2Q
FY10 EPS guided to $7.00-7.40 (st. $7.12) from prev $6.80-7.30
FY10 Rev guided to $2.5-2.6B from $2.6-2.7B (st. $2.63B)
BSG hybrid expected to be standard of PCV
ReplyDeleteSource: Global Times [15:22 July 23 2010]Comments
A new policy that will influence every aspect of the auto industry is now under discussion. General Manager of Chery New Energy Company, Yuan Tao, said Thursday that relevant authorities are now planning to issue a policy on hybrid vehicle technology, requiring new PCVs to be equipped with the BSG hybrid system for fuel efficiency.
An industry insider from Dongfeng motor confirmed the statement, and said implementation should happen by 2012.
The BSG is a mild hybrid technology that can save about five percent on fuel. Unlike the electric vehicle technology, the BSG is just an innovation of traditional gas-diesel engine and can boost fuel efficiency. Its cost is also relatively low. According to Dongfeng Motor, under mass production, it only costs 1,000 yuan ($147.5) per car to be equipped with the BSG system.
Domestic fuel consumption in 2008 was 540 million tons of gasoline and 520 million tons of diesel. If all the vehicles had been equipped with the BSG system, the annual fuel consumption would have decreased by five million tons.
The Mr. Yuan also said, "Both plug-in and fuel battery technologies belong to electricallization. The traditional engine technology should not be ignored for it will continue to play a leading role in a long time."
Statistic shows that the sales volume of domestic new energy cars in 2009 are 9,800 units, only accounting for one thousandth of the sales of domestic PCVs. Governments of Shenzhen and Tangshan have already drafted an investment plan worth billions of yuan on the popularization of new energy vehicles.
Solarfun Power (SOLF US, $10.25/ADS, Neutral) Q2'10 Earnings Quick Look: Strong Results / Hanwha Chemical to buy 49.9% stake in SOLF:
ReplyDeleteYet another strong quarter for SOLF as the company reported headline diluted EPS of $0.53/ADS. Recurring eps, after backing out a $2.2 MM FX gain, of $0.50/ADS handily beats both the SCI and street estimates at $0.28/ADS and $0.26/ADS, respectively. Management is raising FY’10 shipment guidance 15% from previous guidance to 750 MW. Additionally, on a constant currency basis, SOLF expects ASPs to increase slightly in Q3’10 over Q2’10 levels. While ASPs were in-line with our model, shipments that were 20% stronger than our expectation coupled with gross margins that came in 250 basis points above our model drove the beat. SOLF continues to demonstrate its ability to reduce costs while moving healthy product quantities. The story continues to improve at SOLF. Perhaps the biggest news of the day concerns S. Korean chemical manufacturer Hanwha Chemical. According to a separate release, Hanwha Chemical will buy 49.9% of SOLF for ~$370 MM. Hanwha will pay $10.72/ADS (~5% premium to Monday’s closing price). According to Hanwha, the deal is expected to conclude by October 2010. Shares in SOLF have been strong this year, up 34% versus our solar coverage down 25% YTD. Conference call is at 7:00 a.m. CT, Dial in: 800-510-0219, Code: SOLF.
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SDRL.N, Seadrill ($32.69) /Raising Price Target (to $38) Ahead of Massive Fleet Expansion
ReplyDeleteMorgan Stanley & Co. Incorporated
Ole.Slorer@morganstanley.com, Igor.Levi
Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc
Martijn.Rats@morganstanley.com, Robert.Pulleyn
We believe Seadrill is on the brink of significantly “expanding its fleet” as well as its DPS capacity. During the last cycle, SDRL’s management were very active on the newbuild and M&A fronts, funding growth through creative use of capital markets. With a US listing, SDRL has enhanced its ability to repeat this feat as we enter another cycle. We believe management is about to spring into action, given high insider ownership, we believe accretion will be substantial. We believe Seadrill will maintain its strategy of only engaging in deals that are accretive to its short-term, medium-term and long-term dividend capacity. We have increased conviction that SDRL will lock in multiple opportunities along this strategy near term. We do not believe that SDRL will pay an excessive premium for any public acquisition, but instead engage in low-premium deals where mutual merger benefits will be shared.
Ultra Petroleum (UPL) – 3Q EPS beat, CFPS in line, operations update positive, raising PT, lowering ests - UPL released 3Q10 earnings today and held a conference call. In our view, the 3Q10 results, guidance and the operations update were more positive than the stock price reaction, relative to the group. EPS/CFPS were $0.60/$1.24 versus consensus and our estimate of $0.55/$1.24. UPL’s production of 603 MMcfepd was slightly lower than our estimate of 608 MMcfepd. The price realization of $5.07/Mcfe was above our expectation of $4.99/Mcfe. Unit operating costs of $2.32/Mcfe were below our estimate of $2.42/Mcfe on lower taxes and DD&A. Guidance. The company reiterated its 2010 production guidance of 216-219 Bcfe. Marcellus operations update positive. UPL continued to improve its drilling efficiency in the Marcellus, with recent wells averaging 10 days rig release to rig release. The average lateral length of the Marcellus wells increased to 5,100 feet in 3Q10 from 4,400 feet in 2Q10. On the call, UPL indicated that its average well declines are flatter than it had projected in its 3.75 Bcfe type curve. Based on 3Q10 results, including lower future LOE assumptions, we raised our NAV to $60.73 from $57.31. Our new Dec-11 price target is $60.50. We adjusted our estimates on the results as well. Allman https://mm.jpmorgan.com/PubServlet?action=open&doc=GPS-500357-0.pdf
ReplyDeleteDevon Energy (DVN) – Updated model for 3Q results, raising ests/PT - DVN continues to make progress with its divestiture program. 3Q10 marked the completion of DVN's asset sales in Azerbaijan and China. The company expects to close the sale of its Brazil assets by year-end. We are raising our December 2011 price target to $100 from $93 based on updated 3Q guidance, divestiture activity, and the rollover of our NAV to 3Q. For 4Q10 we are lowering CFPS to $3.10 from $3.19 due to lower forecasted production and increased overall operating costs. DVN is trading at 72% of estimated NAV, versus the group of 90%. Allman https://mm.jpmorgan.com/PubServlet?action=email&doc=GPS-508235-0.pdf
ReplyDeleteEnerNOC (ENOC) – Reit OW, PHM misinterpreted - The pullback in ENOC stock presents long-term investors with an opportunity to build positions in this growth stock at a reasonable price in our view. ENOC has traded down 23.2% YTD (S&P 500 up 6.7%). We believe the stock is currently pricing in a misunderstanding regarding PJM’s DR program intentions. The November sell-off (down 24%, S&P up 1%) was spurred by weaker than expected guidance for the seasonally slow F4Q but we consider 4Q-1Q revenue and earnings as weak barometers of ENOC's current portfolio of DR business, and a poor lead-indicator of future prospects. We believe the key lead-indicators for this company are the 5100 MW under management (up 65% y/y), future contracted revenues (particularly at PJM through mid 2014), the growing customer base (now over 3,500), and the growing quota-carrying sales force. F2Q and 3Q are better measures of the business owing to the seasonal surge in actual activity. We also know in advance that pricing at PJM will dip in 2011 (2008 auction results), but we also know that PJM pricing will improve dramatically in 2013 (2010 auction results). This company exhibits above-average long-term visibility into future growth. We believe that this smart grid company stands at the threshold of ~25% CAGR long-term revenue growth as the leader in critical Demand Response solutions for electric utilities and grid operators that supply commercial and industrial end-markets in North America. We expect ENOC's profitability to surge through 2012, justifying a high valuation multiple. Near-term, we believe the stock could be catalyzed by potential contract announcements. The EMS segment is gaining traction, with over $25mm in contracted revenues. In our view, this stock should appeal to tech growth investors, utilities investors seeking a high beta stock for the portfolio, and to clean-tech portfolio managers. Coster https://mm.jpmorgan.com/PubServlet?action=email&doc=GPS-511745-0.pdf
ReplyDeletePBHfjdkfjajdklfas
SDRL.N, Seadrill ($31.09) /Confidence in the Dividend, Expansion Full Speed Ahead
ReplyDeleteMorgan Stanley & Co. Incorporated
Ole.Slorer@morganstanley.com, Igor.Levi
Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc
Martijn.Rats@morganstanley.com, Robert.Pulleyn
SDRL demonstrated confidence in its ability to sustain (and even grow) its dividend, despite its massive newbuilding program. The company has raised its dividend by $0.04 to $0.65 per quarter compared to our expectations of $0.02 and last quarter’s $0.01 raise. This is indicative of the company’s confidence in the sustainability of its dividend, despite having ordered six newbuild units on spec over the last two months as the company’s payment profile for newbuilds matches its cash flow and dividend payout. We are increasing our price target from $38 to $40. This is based on: 1) increasing confidence in the dividend, demonstrated by the $0.04 hike, and 2) fleet expansion growing dividend capacity.