Meeting 12-28-2010

We will not meet on Thursday, December 30.  Our next meeting is January 3, 2011 at 10:00 AM.

 

MSFT bought in MB and Ellen’s accounts as a fill in

MB is interested in the Dogs of the Dow

 

Income ETF’s: Ellen sent around some information last week about actively managed income ETF’s.  Short trading history, but these are run by PIMCO and could be worth looking at.  MINT, 0-3 yrs, 1% yield and MUNI, 0-3 yrs, 2.3% yield.  This could be a good alternative for some of our clients, especially as we go into next year. 

 

Paper companies: Weyerhaeuser (WY) recently converted to a REIT.  Maisa is a sustainable paper play currently in the Highwater Universe (Not the Fund)

 

Gold and Silver versus miners and other industrials: Discussion about the asset and comparing it to owning industrials and miners.  Overall, agree that it is a good asset to have in client accounts, but need to continue to discuss the level to hold and whether a bubble is building as more and more investors pile in. 

 

Other industrial names to consider: Vulcan Materials, Heidelberg Cement (trades on the German Exchange)

 

 

Baldwin Brothers

 

Polly Talbott

 

204 Spring St, Marion, MA 02738

Ph (508) 748-0800

Facsimile (508) 748-0806

 

www.baldwinbrothersinc.com

 

This message contains information from Baldwin Brothers, Inc. that may be confidential.  This message is directed only to the individual or entity named above.  If you are not the intended recipient, please be aware that any disclosure, copying, distribution, or use of the contents of this email is prohibited.  If you received this email in error, please notify the sender immediately and delete the message and any attachments.

 

Dallas Federal Reserve Paper on Housing.

Click HERE to open PDF file

Stock Meeting 12-19-2010

Stock Meeting 12-19-2010
Reminder- we won't meet Thursday

Twin Focus sees the 10 year falling back to 2.3%

Fred Hickey piece has good review of MSFT Kinect.

(BN) Gross's Pimco Total Return to Invest Up to 10% in Equity-Linked Securities

Bloomberg News, sent from my iPad.

Pimco Total Return May Buy Equity-Linked Securities

Dec. 16 (Bloomberg) -- Bill Gross's Pimco Total Return Fund, the world's largest mutual fund, is expanding its policy to allow investments in equity-linked securities for the first time since 2003.

Pimco Total Return may put as much as 10 percent of assets in securities including preferred stock and convertible bonds as early as the second quarter of next year, according to a filing today with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The fund won't invest in common stock, the Newport Beach, California- based firm said.

Gross, who said in October that asset purchases by the Fed will probably signify the end of the 30-year rally in bonds, has invested the Total Return fund in a mix of government-related debt, mortgage securities and emerging market bonds. A top performer over the past five years, the fund trailed most of its large rivals during a debt selloff in the past month.

"This brings Pimco in line with other bond funds in the same category and gives them more flexibility," Miriam Sjoblom, an analyst with Morningstar Inc. in Chicago, said in an interview. "In moderation, this could increase returns without adding considerable risk to the portfolio," she said.

Kathleen Gaffney, who co-manages the $19 billion Loomis Sayles Bond Fund with Dan Fuss, said in August that the fund has increased investments in convertible notes, which can be exchanged for stock, to boost returns for investors.

Bond Selloff

Treasuries fell today, pushing the 10-year note yield to a seven-month high, as evidence the U.S. economy is recovering reduced demand for safety. The decline in bonds, which accelerated after the Federal Reserve on Nov. 3 pledged to buy an additional $600 billion in assets to revive the economy, prompted investors to pull money from taxable bond funds in the week through Dec. 8, the first week of net redemptions in two years.

Gross had reduced government debt for four straight months through October. Pimco Total Return, which according to Morningstar Inc. lost $1.9 billion to investor withdrawals in November, has declined 2.2 percent over the past month, trailing 93 percent of peers.

The $250 billion fund has advanced 7.8 percent in the past five years, beating 98 percent of similarly managed rivals over that period, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Pimco said in today's filing that the move to invest in equity-related securities came after the fund's board decided to repurchase shares owned by Japanese investors and end selling the fund there. Pimco Total Return stopped making equity-related investments in 2003 as Japanese securities law restricts such purchases for bond funds.

Pimco, a unit of Munich-based insurer Allianz SE, manages about $1.2 trillion in assets. Mark Porterfield, a spokesman for Pimco, declined to comment on the filing.

To contact the reporter on this story: Sree Bhaktavatsalam in Boston at sbhaktavatsa@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Christian Baumgaertel at cbaumgaertel@bloomberg.net

Find out more about Bloomberg for iPad: http://m.bloomberg.com/ipad/

(BN) U.S. Economy Set to `Run Fast' With Emerging Markets, Pimco's Kiesel Says

Bloomberg News, sent from my iPad.

U.S. Economy to 'Run Fast' With Emerging Markets, Pimco Says

Dec. 16 (Bloomberg) -- Pacific Investment Management Co. says the U.S. economy is poised to "run fast" along with emerging-market countries, to the benefit of banks, secured loans and bonds, and junk-rated debt that may be upgraded to investment-quality.

"The experience of running fast, or at least running faster, is something the U.S. economy is finally set to do," Mark Kiesel, global head of corporate bond portfolios at Pimco, wrote on the firm's website. The fund favors credits in emerging markets, the U.S. and countries "tied into strong emerging markets growth," such as Canada and Australia, he wrote.

The biggest bond-fund manager boosted its forecast for U.S. economic growth by 1 percentage point to as much as 3.5 percent after President Barack Obama agreed to extend tax cuts enacted by his predecessor and as Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke seeks to reduce unemployment and avert deflation by buying Treasuries. Pimco is based in Newport Beach, California.

"The U.S. economy has turned the corner from a cyclical perspective due to the combination of accommodative monetary policy and increased near-term fiscal stimulus along with gradually improving trends in underlying economic fundamentals," wrote Kiesel, who was nominated yesterday for fixed-income manager of the year by Morningstar Inc.

"Europe appears sick and is set to 'run slow' on a relative basis, with subpar economic growth," he wrote.

Junk, or high-yield, bonds and leveraged loans are rated below Baa3 by Moody's Investors Service and lower than BBB- by Standard & Poor's.

To contact the reporter on this story: John Detrixhe in New York at jdetrixhe1@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Alan Goldstein at agoldstein5@bloomberg.net

Find out more about Bloomberg for iPad: http://m.bloomberg.com/ipad/

Stock Meeting 12-16-2010

Stock Meeting 12-16-2010

Meetings next week Monday only.

Energy name EOG
xom pt $87

Merrill lynch review of their outlook
Commodities - 2011 outlook choppy with an upward bias.
E M- s Africa no. 1pick Prefers Latin America over Asia. Latin America looking at Chile, Columbia, Peru Mexico, Argentina
Breakout in the small and Mid cap names.
Retail $ on the sidelines and could stay that way.
Dogs of the Dow - Energy? P. 23
P. 52 interest rates
P. 70 Sector
Consumer staples and discretion will see more pass through 2011. TIPs a buy in first Q

China
NYTIMES 2 recent articles on Wind power
Economist article China Friend or foe?

Harding Frontier Fund worth watching

Shipping Mega vessels up 6 fold. 61 ships floating 144 on order and working by 2014. All of it in prep for the open for the Panama Canal.

Mutal bond fund returns since September
VIPSX -2%
PTTRX -7.8%
VBMFX -3.1
VFSTX -1.1

FW: Monday Meeting 12-6-10

Monday Meeting 12-6-10
For Thursday
Taylor will join to discuss performance and reporting and foreign held
securities
Large cap multinationals (industrials, etc., see below)

Discussion
*India versus China: Ellen prefers India and suggests trimming Matthews
Asia due to its China exposure
*Arms-Continue to see over bought conditions, market doesn't have vol
support in the rallies
*ISI raised their forecast
*China should be watched
*Bond bull market ending and he need to play it
*13d on currencies is a good read
*60 Minutes Bernanke interview
*NYT yesterday
-GE NYT article
-Muni market
*SI an additional play?
*PHG could be switched out or used for tax loss. Not seeing strong
short term catalyst
*UPL could be a good short term play due to energy policy and switching
by utilities to natty power plants
*Canadian Railroad ?
*Could US companies outperform?
-CEO's want clarity, yes. Taxes, healthcare.
*Will 2012 EPS be better?
-Cyclical names? They have perf well. Is it worth it to look at them
again with an eye to better growth than anticipated? Or is better
performance baked in?
-Pharmaceuticals? PFE?
-Stocks EOG, CNI, large cap names? Multinationals?
*ITRI could be in a good position for 2011, Terry Murphy likes it,
thinks Bernstein is Way off.
*HTC ticker is HTCXF

Stock Meeting 12-2-2010

Stock Meeting 12-2-2010
HTC-Add to Buy list at 2. Pre-christmas could initiate a 1% position. Would continue to add after holidays.
-Selling @ 2x sales. See 25 pct return possible.
- interesting story-good marketing
-Good integration of the Android OS
-Entry? Start here and average into the position. Holiday expectations high.

SI
-Watch list
Buyer below $110

Buy and Watch List review next week