JPMorgan Call Recap - CdeR

• Economic strength broadening, despite the NFP we saw today.
• Risks to the forecast skewed to the upside.
• Capex growing, companies becoming more confident.
• Has yet to translate into robust hiring (duh).
• +3-4% growth forecast becoming more dependent upon the consumer.
• Wouldn't call 3% "glowing health".
• Inventories at record low for cycle, restocking effect will help.
• Savings rate sideways, after moving up to 3%, will possibly drop as consumer gets in the game.
• WOULDNT TALK ABOUT GOVT FINANCES ON THIS CALL.  (different subject!)
• Low inflation could become a real problem if growth is 2% or less. Fed has limited tools to deal with the growth shortfalls.  (what about QE?  - CdeR)
• We have moved away from pessimism, but not yet at an optimism type of level.

Concerns:

• China
• Europe
• US deficits