Sunday, July 25, 2010

Barron's: More Heat on First Solar

A new study questions the safety of the solar company's panels. But pricing of silicon may be a bigger problem


FIRST SOLAR HAS WORKED MIGHTILY in the last year to reassure investors that its "thin-film" solar-energy panels will continue to enjoy a cost advantage over rivals' increasingly cheap silicon-based wares. Shares of Tempe, Ariz.-based First Solar (ticker: FSLR) have yo-yoed from 170 to 100 and then back to about 140 recently, as the company's gross margins veered from 56% to 42% and then back up to 50% for the March 2010 quarter—reflecting the competitive pressures that we predicted when the price of raw silicon began to drop ("Nightfall Comes to Solar Land," March 30, 2009).


First Solar panels at work in Germany. Competitors now are challenging its prices and the safety of its products.


But another front is heating up in First Solar's fight with competitors like Suntech (STP), Trina Solar (TSL) andYingli Green Energy (YGE)—a debate over the long-term safety of First Solar products. First Solar's panels use cadmium-tellurium technology while the others use silicon wafers. The company has presented tests to show that the highly toxic cadmium is safely sealed in glass, and First Solar runs a voluntary program that will reclaim the panels at the end of their 30-year lives. Yet some silicon-panel rivals have argued for the treatment of First Solar products as hazardous waste.


On July 28, the California Department of Toxic Substances Control will hold a workshop in Sacramento to discuss how solar panels should be exempt from the state's hazardous-waste category. A non-profit group concerned about cadmium toxicity released a lab study last Thursday that asserts that cadmium-tellurium panels crushed in a landfill would leak the toxic substance at levels exceeding California's allowed levels.


The report was commissioned by The Non-Toxic Solar Alliance, a group organized by a University of Stuttgart professor named Jürgen Werner. The analysis (which is available atwww.ntsa.eu/Downloads_Links.html) was conducted by an outfit called Sierra Analytical Labs in Laguna Hills, Calif. It crushed the product samples and immersed them in a mildly acidic solution (with a pH level of 5) meant to replicate the liquid runoff in a landfill. The resulting cadmium levels, said the lab, were almost three times the threshold considered hazardous.


Other lab studies had concluded that, under realistic conditions, the cadmium-based panels did not release the toxic substance at dangerous levels, including studies sponsored by the U.S. Dept. of Energy.


First Solar's vice president of sustainable development, Lisa Krueger, says the company welcomes attention to the end-of-life handling of solar cells and notes that First Solar has established a trust to prefund the recycling of its products. The regulation of First Solar panels when they eventually become waste does not affect the company's production and sale of the products.


That solar panels make questionable landfill is nothing new, says Vasilis M. Fthenakis, a scientist at Brookhaven National Lab and an engineering professor at Columbia University who has studied the life cycle of solar panels. "All types of modules will fail those tests," he says of the recently-released study. "We don't advocate for any photovoltaics to be thrown into landfills. We advocate for all photovoltaic panels to be recycled."


So it's very possible that cadmium turns out to be less of a problem for First Solar than the still-falling prices of silicon used by its rivals

Friday, July 23, 2010

ITRI Jefferies Report

Jefferies: We continue to view ITRI as a core holding in the smart metering (AMI) space, with the largest number of integrated AMI meters under contract.  With leading share of the North AMerican metering market, ITRI remains a proven vendor and 800 lb gorilla in an increasingly competitive environment.  Recent competitor announcement does not affect ITRI's near term fundamentals or LT market positioning and we remain buyers, particularly on current share weakness.  We would reassess this opportunity should pronounced share loss become evident.  ITRI repotts Wednesday, July 28.  We are ahead of consensus for 2Q10.

Wednesday, July 21, 2010

Bernanke Preview - WSJ

Click HERE for story

Quest Diagnostics Whiffs Again

People going to the Docs less to save on the co-pay?  Ultimately could this be a buy when/if Obamacare is implemented??  For now, this is a scary milepost for the economy, but could be an opp at some point.

(Reuters) - Quest Diagnostics Inc (DGX.N) posted a surprising decline in second-quarter revenue on Wednesday, prompting the No. 1 lab-testing company to cut its full-year profit forecast and sending shares down 7 percent in premarket trading.
While second-quarter profit slightly topped estimates, a further slowdown in physician office visits contributed to the revenue decline of 1.4 percent to $1.87 billion, Quest said. Analysts looked for nearly $1.93 billion, according to Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.
"Revenue softness through the first half has made us more cautious about our full-year outlook, and we have reduced 2010 guidance accordingly," Quest Chief Executive Officer Surya Mohapatra said in a press release.
Quest projects full-year earnings from continuing operations in a range of $3.90 to $4.00 per share, down from its prior range of $4 to $4.20 per share. Analysts had been expecting $4.18.
The company cut its 2010 revenue forecast for the second consecutive quarter. It expects revenue to fall by about 1 percent. Previously it projected a revenue increase of between 1 percent to 2 percent, which had been reduced last April.

LIFE comment by Jeffries

Life Technologies (LIFE, $47.11, Buy, PT $60, Mkt Cap $8.6B) - Jon Wood 
-With ~80% of composite revenue attributable to higher-margined recurring consumables and service revenue streams, LIFE’s defensive business mix characteristics are a compelling investment merit in current market conditions, in our view. Additionally, we believe LIFE is capable of growing organic revenues at a 1% to 2% premium to its end-markets annually over the intermediate-term, owing to its entrenched presence in higher-growth life science product niches, superior pricing power, elevated new product vitality and ongoing synergies from the ABI merger

Second Half Slowdown

Wow, look Ma, I did it all by myself...

Click HERE for Goldman second half slowdown report

Tuesday, July 20, 2010

PHG 2Q 2010 EPS Write Up

DS Notes: GM 36.8% against my 36.5% for the year. Much like everything else, they beat, but murky global outlook leads to sell pressure on overweight name for most analysts. Estimates will. have come down a bit on this, but still a very strongly situated company. Emerging mkts offer robust opp. EBIT forecast expected to exceed 10% for the year and most analysts still in high singles. This leads to conservative 2bn EBIT and 1.3bn net income given uncertainty and single digit YOY sales growth. Or €1.40. (street at €1.53) while the macro environment has reduced my high hopes for more of an American consumer related recovery in the 2H of this year….I think this is still a good name to own. Given strong cash flow. 3% dividend. Exposure to emerging mkts consumer. Still looking for $35-36 USD(18-19x) by year end on 1.30 FX rate. (although I feel given macro uncertainty may be stuck in the $31-32 range) Still should be valued higher for leadership in lighting, various consumer end mkts. Solid hold. With new money I would buy anywhere below $31.

Monday, July 19, 2010

GOOG Barron's Article 07-17-2010

Cover article from this week's Barron's.

Many investors think Google's amazing run is over. It's not. The stock is undervalued by 35% or more.

Friday, July 16, 2010

VMI 2Q 2010 EPS

DS notes: USS projects being pushed out. Forecast that earnings will now be down 35% YOY v. 25% at last call excluding Delta acquisition. Implies $3.71. (where they were in 2007) that leaves them with $1.86 to do the rest of the year. (2009 was record year EPS for them) This is not surprising when Utility is down 50% YOY and was almost ½ of revs last year.. Not a good day to report too. - bk to bill about flat in utility in the Q. Good company and managing things relatively well. Need to continue to keep an eye on pricing and what was 6% increase in SGA costs (non-acqusition related). Increased competition it seems in foreign geographies. This is still a 2011 story, but seems now more risk than upside to macro environment currently where they play.